The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season begins today. Among those making predictions, a Savannah-based researcher says there's a one-in-four chance that Georgia could be hit by a major storm.
Chuck Watson's predictions are used by government agencies and insurance companies to prepare for loss of life and property. He says, computer models predict lower-than-normal, zero storm probabilities for June and November, but a higher-than-normal chance for October.
"If you look at this year, it looks like we're going to go into an El Nino cycle," Watson says. "But the downside is that Atlantic ocean temperatures are a bit warmer than normal."
Federal forecasters predict 14 named storms this year. Watson's predictions are month-to-month chances, based in part on statistical data by University of Central Florida researcher Mark Johnson. The pair stresses, even though some months have higher storm forecasts, storms can strike any time.
Audio: Chuck Watson describes the inevitability of a storm strike:
Monday, June 1, 2009
1-in-4 chance of a major hurricane strike
